NCA4: Fourth National Climate Assessment Draft Open for Review

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is a United States government interagency ongoing effort on climate change science conducted under the auspices of the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The NCA generated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) which coordinates a team of experts and receives input from a Federal Advisory Committee.

“The vision is to advance an inclusive, broad based, and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-making across the U.S.”
— NCA May 20, 2011 page2

The 3rd National Climate Assessment was released in 2014. This new Draft of the 4th National Climate Assessment has been peer reviewed 5 times and is currently available for public review and comment until January 31, 2018.

Public Review of draft of the full NCA4 Report
(through Jan 31, 2018)!

Climate Science Special Report Volume I

This publicly accessible / sharable report is an authoritative assessment of the science of climate change, with a focus on the United States. It represents the first of two volumes of the Fourth National Climate Assessment, mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The full report – findings outlined below – is up for public review and comment.

» View online version with clickable Share buttons on info graphics
» Download this report, extracted from the Full NCA4


Full NCA4 Report Findings

1. Communities. Climate change (CC) exacerbates existing vulnerabilities in communities

2. Economy. Losses to infrastructure, property, and productivity driven by the impacts of CC are expected to increasingly disrupt the U.S. economy

3. Water. The quality and quantity of water available for use by humans and ecosystems across the country is being affected by the impacts of CC, presenting an increasing risk to people and the environment

4. Health. Climate change-driven impacts on extreme weather, air quality, and the transmission of disease through insects, food, and water increasingly threaten the health and well-being of the American people

5. Infrastructure. Our Nation’s aging infrastructure is further stressed by increases in heavy precipitation, coastal flooding, heat, and other extreme events as well as changes to average precipitation and temperature

6. Ecosystems and ecosystem services. Ecosystems and the benefits they provide to society are being altered by CC; … Without significant reductions in carbon emissions, transformative impacts on some ecosystems will occur

7. Agriculture. Rising temperatures, extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall increasingly disrupt American agriculture, reducing crop yields and quality, increasing crop andlivestock exposure to pests, and threatening the economy

8. Tourism and Recreation. Many essential services provided by ecosystems and the environment that support tourist economies, outdoor recreation, and quality of life will be degraded by …climate change.

9. Oceans and Coasts. Coastal communities and the ecosystems that support them areincreasingly threatened by climate-driven impacts; without significant reductions in carbon emissions and adaptation measures, many communities will be transformed … with cascading impacts to the larger economy.

10. Indigenous peoples. Climate change increasingly threatens tribal and Indigenous communities’ livelihoods, economies, health, and cultural identities through disruption of interconnected social, physical, and ecological systems

11. Interconnected Impacts. As climate risks intensify, the interdependent systems on which we rely are vulnerable to cascading impacts across sectors, threatening essential services and sectors within and beyond the Nation’s borders

12. Adaptation and Mitigation. Communities and businesses are working to reduce climate change-related risks and their associated costs through the adoption of proactive management and adaptation strategies that are robust to a wide range of climate futures

» View informational webinar slides

NCA4 Schedule

• Nov 3, 2017 –Jan 31, 2018

Public Review of 3rd order draft of the full NCA4 Report
(through Jan 31, 2018)!

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• Nov 3, 2017 –March, 2018. National Academies review 3rdorder draft.
• (Authors respond to comments and prepare 4thorder draft)

• Apr-May. SGCR reviews Fourth Order Draft
• Jun-Aug. Final Federal Clearance of Fifth Order Draft
• Sept-Dec. Final layout and website production
• Dec. Public release of NCA4


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